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ForumsCardiovascular OutcomesNNT for MACE prevention — semaglutide vs statin vs SGLT2i comparison Page 2

NNT for MACE prevention — semaglutide vs statin vs SGLT2i comparison

BiostatsBrad Sat, Feb 21, 2026 at 12:55 AM 26 replies 690 viewsPage 2 of 6
Dr.EM_Chicago
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May 2024
Chicago, IL
Feb 21, 2026 at 3:45 AM#6

I'm a bit confused. I thought GLP-1 drugs were for weight loss and diabetes. How does something that reduces appetite protect the kidneys? What's the actual mechanism?

17 18jim_asheville, matt_MKE, Dr.ReproEndo and 14 others
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BariatricNurseD
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Feb 21, 2026 at 4:02 AM#7

Excellent question. The renal benefit likely involves multiple mechanisms beyond weight loss and glucose control:

  1. Reduced intraglomerular pressure: GLP-1 promotes natriuresis (sodium excretion) at the proximal tubule, which reduces glomerular hyperfiltration — a major driver of CKD progression
  2. Anti-inflammatory effects: CKD is characterized by chronic kidney inflammation. GLP-1 RAs reduce renal expression of inflammatory mediators (NF-κB, MCP-1)
  3. Anti-fibrotic effects: Preclinical data shows GLP-1 RAs reduce TGF-β signaling and renal fibrosis
  4. Improved endothelial function: Better renal blood flow autoregulation
  5. Metabolic improvements: Better glycemic control, reduced hyperinsulinemia, lower blood pressure, and improved lipids all independently benefit kidney health

GLP-1 receptors are expressed throughout the kidney, including in the proximal tubule, glomerular endothelium, and juxtaglomerular apparatus. So this is not just a systemic metabolic effect — there's direct renal pharmacology at work.

Last edited: Feb 21, 2026 at 9:02 AM
2 6roxy_nash, tony_orlando
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roxy_nash
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Feb 21, 2026 at 4:19 AM#8

I'll add one more critical point: FLOW also showed a 20% reduction in all-cause mortality (HR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67-0.95). This is arguably the most important finding because mortality is the hardest endpoint to move.

For a population with T2DM and CKD — which carries a 5-year mortality rate of 20-30% — a 20% relative mortality reduction translates to a meaningful number of lives saved. Combined with the evidence from SELECT (where semaglutide trended toward mortality reduction in the CV population), we're seeing a consistent signal that semaglutide extends life.

The early trial termination for efficacy should underscore the robustness of these findings. Data monitoring committees don't make that decision lightly — it means the evidence was so strong that it would have been unethical to continue withholding the drug from the placebo group.

35 23tony_orlando, Dr.NephBHM_UK, kim_atl_prep and 32 others
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DadBodDave
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Ohio
Feb 21, 2026 at 4:36 AM#9

Thank you all for this discussion. Very helpful for someone like me who is living with CKD and T2DM. I feel much more informed about why my nephrologist is adding semaglutide and what I should expect. The eGFR slope data is particularly encouraging — slowing the decline by 47% could mean years more before I'd need dialysis, if ever.

I'll share my labs after 6 months on the combination regimen.

24 15Dr.GastroMayo, JakeBK_lifts, DerekSJ_a1c and 21 others
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