To bring this back to clinical relevance: even if the exact magnitude of GCG-mediated thermogenesis is debatable, the hepatic effects are unambiguous and potentially more important clinically.
Glucagon is the primary signal for hepatic glycogenolysis and fatty acid oxidation. The liver fat reduction data from retatrutide Phase 2 (≥70% reduction in liver fat in over 80% of participants) far exceeds what's seen with pure GLP-1 agonists. This isn't a subtle effect — it's a dramatic, clinically meaningful improvement in hepatic steatosis.
Whether you want to call hepatic fatty acid oxidation "thermogenesis" is partly semantic. The energy from those oxidized fatty acids has to go somewhere — some is captured as ATP, some is dissipated as heat. The net effect is that fat stores in the liver are mobilized and depleted. That's the GCG component earning its keep, regardless of the BAT question.